Leo Says 62: We NEED Taiwan!

Today Leo is talking about Taiwan. We’ve all heard of the place – but Leo takes us through some history, and how that might affect the global semiconductor market in the years to come.

00:00 Start
00:15 A little history lesson from Leo
04:15 Why should we, the public in Europe care?
05:45 TSMC will spend $100B USD in 3 years, $30B this year
06:32 SMIC investing $2.35B
07:14 TSMC building a fab in Arizona
07:53 Europeans decide making chips is a good idea
09:03 Intelligence reported – some details and American intervention ?
11:15 What will happen in the next 2 years?

UK Government has announced a Green list of 12 destinations
New Zealand
Falkland Islands
Faroe Islands
South Georgia and the South Sandwich Islands
St Helena, Tristan de Cunha, Ascension Island

You will note that Taiwan is missing from the list, despite its stellar virus containment, and most likely that is because Taiwan does not officially exist.
We can turn to a video produced by the Economist that explains the fascinating history of Taiwan over the past 80 years

The Economist ‘Is Taiwan part of China?’

TSMC will spend US$100 billion in the next three years with US$30 billion ‘this year’
(Not certain whether that is 2021 or Q1 2021 to Q1 2022)

Intel is building two new fabs at its Ocotillo campus in Arizona
Intel Capex budget for 2021 is USS19-20 billion
(in 2020 they spent US$14.3 billion and in 2019 US$16.2 billion)

SMIC will invest US$2.35 billion in Shenzen and should come online in 2022

TSMC is building a fab in Arizona, although surely not at the cutting edge
Samsung will expand their fab in Austin, TX

In December 2020 the EU announced they would deliver a 2nm fab somewhere in the EU by 2030 with a proposed budget of Euros 145 billion

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30 Replies to “Leo Says 62: We NEED Taiwan!”

  1. God is great- America is great

    Will Taiwan be able to defend itself against China?
    I believe if China was to reunite taiwan with force, the first battle will be the last for taiwan. Open your eyes and use your small brain especially those taiwan pro-independence civilians.

    ISO 3166-2 International Organization for Standardization ISO code. Retrieved 2020-08-26. Short name TAIWAN, PROVINCE OF CHINA. taiwan is included as a subdivision of China because of its political status within the United Nations, as, even though it is de facto under the jurisdiction of the Republic of China instead of the People's Republic of China, the United Nations does not recognize the Republic of China and considers taiwan as part of China. In ISO 3166-1, taiwan is listed as "Taiwan, Province of China"

  2. Edward Allen

    If we (America) are in a Republican administration (God help us) when China invades Taiwan, we will mobilize for world war III. There may be more nuance in a Democratic administration, but protecting TSMC, I mean Taiwan, will be a priority.

  3. Terry Forsythe

    Great video. Very insightful. It is worth noting that the U.S. no longer can afford to take the lead in fighting battles for other countries. Our federal debt now exceeds our GDP by about 30%, and currently is skyrocketing. We are headed for an economic meltdown in the not so distant future. The U.S. government must reduce spending, including military spending. The U.S. will no longer be able to continue spending, as a percentage of its GDP, double, triple and quadruple of what other major countries spend on their military budgets as percentages of their GDPs. The EU, the U.K., Australia, Japan, Korea, etc. need to step up and take the lead on this with Taiwan. I suspect it will not happen and Taiwan will fall under China's control.

  4. BlueNeon

    Taiwan is anything but unified when it comes to independence. Slightly less than half the voters favor re-unification. The DPP currently hold the government, that can change at another election giving the KMT a mandate to join mainland . History is always interesting but its the present that counts.

  5. Marc Jackson

    Kong Kong ranking using the 'Freedom' index has improved since the handover. Your not that good at getting facts. Hong Kong people not that free under the british.

  6. TheOld PCGamer77

    I thought nuclear bombs had fixed the issue of wars in the developed world. Do this and you are assured to be screwed. So the CCP should just stop trying to flex over there because one button press and any number of countries could nuke them and then it's goodbye world as we know it in the ensuing chaos. If the world just stood up to them they would have no chance in hell of doing anything like this.

  7. Tomy Wu

    Good video and rightful info on the history. Thank you Leo for topic likes this. Do be careful of the cult of nationalism from China, a video title likes this could land many mindless Chinese nationalist wrongfully report the video…

  8. Marc Jackson

    China and Russia now have a huge trading and military tech agreement and 30% of trade is already in RMB bypassing the SWIFT system with China digital RMB this will only increase.

  9. Marc Jackson

    ASML only makes 50-60 litho machines per year, total and 75% of their order book is TSMC/Samsung so where is Intel going to get all the litho machines from?

  10. Marc Jackson

    The economics of a leading node fab has a limited time to return on it's capex at high margin prices then has to lower prices just to keep the fab busy. With everyone building fabs no one is going to make a profit and return their capex. Just add up wafers/month of all these new fabs.

  11. Marc Jackson

    If you did any investigation at all you would know that the US & the DPP have colluded to limit semi production so that only the US and JP orders can be meet.
    Why don't you look at how the DPP was polling in the Taiwan election before and after the HK riots

  12. Marc Jackson

    The EU Auto car manufacturers talking it might be good if China takes over Taiwan as it will guarantee them supply of semi's. The DPP was using water restrictions and environmental laws to curb TSMC expansion, they have no spare clean room area in Taiwan.

  13. Marc Jackson

    Hong Kong passed the NSL which completes article 23 of the basic law, this stops the foreign interference, colour revolutions, just look at the NED funding of the rioters, the National Endowment for Democracy. Every country has a security law, this was missing in HK SAR up until now. The NED is a cut out of the CIA same directors from the CIA.

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