貿易戰如何影響台灣 HOW will the US vs China trade war affect TAIWAN?



HOW will the USA vs China trade war affect taiwan’s economy? As a major exporter to both countries, Taiwan finds itself in the middle of an economic dispute between the world’s 2 biggest economies!! How will it affect us and is it a good thing or a bad thing?

美國對中國的貿易戰如何影響台灣? 作為兩國的主要出口國,台灣發現自己處於世界兩大經濟體之間的爭端中! 它將如何影響我們,這是好事還是壞事?

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48 Replies to “貿易戰如何影響台灣 HOW will the US vs China trade war affect TAIWAN?”

  1. Nicole 巫巫 Wang

    我也認為長遠來說(10年以上),對台灣是好事。台灣體質本身不適合繼續在二級產業繼續深耕。保護重塑一級,抓住二級核心技術,確立三級核心價值政府有在做,但中下層官民很多缺少足夠的危機意識。中美開打應對得好的話或可成為主要推力,但當然這會有殘忍的一面。

  2. Ice baby

    Vietnam is too small, it can't replace China. There are 26 provinces in China and Vietnam is smaller than the size of an average province of Yunnan. Besides China is not only doing low end production like in the 80s and 90s, there are also a lot high tech R & D products including AI, which Vietnam is unable to deliver without huge investment and talents. Advice to Taiwan is not to put all eggs in one basket.
    越南太小,它無法取代中國。中國有26個省,越南的面積小於雲南省。除此之外,中國不僅生產低端產品,還有很多高科技研發產品,包括人工智能,沒有龐大的投資和人才,越南無法生產。給台灣的建議,不要將所有雞蛋放在一個籃子裡!

  3. 日月日易

    就我個人的感受是中國是一隻老虎不是一隻貓,你看中國現在經濟發達了可是有讓世界變好嗎?其實更讓世界變的更危險。看看中國對圖博對新疆對待法輪功就知道中國本質沒有變好還變本加厲!中國這個經濟體有很高的替代性,不要也罷!

  4. BeyondLegend

    No matter how the trade war goes, the people in Taiwan will remain the way of life as before. Time doesn't change the nature of humanity, but only change the form of the system.

  5. Kieran

    The economy of Taiwan will become much better, while the affair diploma between Taiwan and the U.S is closing. Have you investigated what kind of products do Taiwanese company export to China? BTW, the top 12 out of 20 industries in Chinese region come from Taiwan. Basically, subordinate companies receive material from Taiwan and since then make row products to other countries.

  6. 蘇葳葳

    中國有非常嚴重的債務問題…….
    中國債務(國債)達到480多萬億人民幣(70多萬億美元),
    成為世界第一的欠債大國

     以下是轉帖網友SpaceX 999貼文….
    SpaceX 999 1 小時前

    到2019年5月1日前,
    中国积欠外债1.97万亿美元,
    中国国企总负债120多万亿人民币,
    中国(高铁)铁路总公司负债5.27万亿人民币,
    中国恒大负债1.52万亿人民币,
    中国建筑集团负债1.49万亿人民币,
    碧桂园负债1.42万亿人民币,
    万科负债1.31万亿人民币,
    央企中国石油负债1.21万亿人民币,
    海航负债1.1万亿人民币,
    绿地集团负债9670多亿人民币,
    央企中国石化负债9300多亿人民币,
    保利地产负债7100多亿人民币,
    融创中国负债6300多亿人民币,
    上汽集团负债4890多亿人民币,
    中国前首富王健林负债4200多亿人民币,
    中国海外集团负债3700多亿人民币,
    龙湖地产负债3580多亿人民币,
    中铝集团负债3500多亿人民币,
    SOHO中国负债3200多亿人民币,
    富力地产负债3200多亿人民币,
    天津城投债负债3000多亿人民币,
    华为负债3000多亿人民币,
    金地集团负债2100多亿人民币,
    泰禾集团负债2100多亿人民币,
    渤海钢铁集团破产负债1900多亿人民币,
    京东方负债1850多亿人民币,
    唐山钢铁负债1800多亿人民币,
    天津国企天房集团负债1800多亿人民币,
    雅居乐集团负债1700多亿人民币,
    中煤能源负债1500多亿人民币,
    宝武钢铁集团负债1400多亿人民币,
    比亚迪负债1300多亿人民币,
    央企中钢国际负债1100多亿人民币,
    首钢负债960多亿人民币,
    西安高新控股负债800多亿人民币,
    永泰能源破产负债700多亿人民币,
    小米负债700多亿人民币,
    长城汽车集团负债580多亿人民币,
    东北龙煤集团负债500多亿人民币,
    丹东港集团负债489亿人民币,
    青海省投资集团负债400多亿人民币,
    华西村华西集团负债390亿人民币,……。
    中国债务(国债)达到480多万亿人民币(70多万亿美元),比美国国债多3倍以上,
    中国成为世界第一的欠债大国。

  7. 陳冠宇

    I do think the trade war is absolutely good for Taiwan. Maybe it's not now, but I believe Taiwan will get benefits in this trade war. HK and Singapore may not be a good choice for US now, so it's Taiwan's chance. As a student, my opinion may not be correct. But, as a Taiwanese, I really hope it will happen.

  8. Ivan Chang

    We need to know where UK stands in the trade war and UK's attitude to China and Taiwan. Looking forward to your next video to cover this. 🙂 cheers

  9. Richmond Wu

    It's not just a trade war, it include the technology war, the politics war, the culture war, it's conflicts between two different values, conclude to say : It's a new cold war between these two powerful countries. The best way for Taiwan is to stand on the USA side.

  10. Sherry Lu

    Another great topic, Allan. In my humble opinion, no war is good for anyone or anything, but maybe good for the one who lit the fire. We never know what's the deal really happening behind the door or under the table. I'm based in the U.S. and my export business from the U.S. to Taiwan started in 2001 because Taiwan was where I came from. In 2008, I started exporting goods to Southeast Asia countries from the U.S. in order to diminish the risk of "putting all eggs in one basket". Because of this move, it extended the longevity and growth of my business to this day. It is a good thing for Taiwan to increase the investment in the Southeast (ASEAN member) countries whether it's manufacturing or trades. In my perfect world, I hope to see more free trades than trade wars.

  11. Jk Zora

    中國共產黨不倒、全世界都不會好,一個民主自由法治人權的中國,將是對全世界都有好處,也對中國人民有好處,只有中國共產黨沒好處。

  12. Jk Zora

    "生命會自己找出出入的",台商也會找出自己的企業出入。

    事實上,台灣企業已經跑掉一堆,他們早已經將資金移往越南,台灣傳統產業與低階勞力的產業的生命延續力在越南,許多國家像是日本、韓國、歐洲、美國也早就開始遷廠移至越南、柬埔寨、寮國等。

    這些國家有勤奮的勞動力與便宜的土地還有優惠稅捐政策,最重要的是這些國家並沒有要像中國70年來一直幻想恢復中國古代漢唐盛世與中國特色的共產主義推銷全世界,而所謂的漢唐盛世,其實以第三國的角度就是侵略他國擴張自己的領土、稱霸世界、讓全世界各國臣服中國皇帝(即今天的中共國家主席)。

  13. Matt Aldean

    I think the opportunity for Taiwan in this war is that we can be the trading center between both of them. Our geographic position provides us this useful advantage. BUT, that's just my childish naive thinking, it could not be working probably. Be honest, for saving my property in stocks, just stop it, OK? Oh my gosh, it's just a disaster!

  14. Oliver F. Shyr

    What us wants is quite straightforward. China shall follow the rules of WTO to protect intellectual property rights, open the market for foreign companies such as YouTube, Facebook, and stop subsidies for state-own companies such as Huawei. The trade war could have short term impacts. However, if President Trump could transform China into a market economy with democracy, just like President Reagan had done for the Soviet Union, then he will be my idol.

  15. xiaomao zhang

    评论区一帮傻瓜,不懂经济学,不懂时事政治在这里瞎扯淡,小小的岛屿上面有多少资源养活这么多资本?最终还是得走出去,看了一遍才明白,宝岛台湾上的愚民太多。

  16. jason liu

    在忍耐中 尋找機會

    1. 中共國是台灣的敵人
    這點無庸置疑
    2. 台灣人 你們不能繼續
    跟中共國的敵人做這麼多生意
    還想保持自己的和平與競爭力
    3. 結論是 西向經濟時代已經過去
    台灣必須在內努力紮根
    在外掌握世界反共潮流
    加速多簽FTA 在忍耐中 尋找機會

    台北 勇 誠言

  17. .

    中美貿易戰對台灣只有好處...
    台商賺錢不代表台灣人民賺錢,因為就最基本的勞工來看,台商不會跨海請台灣工人去工作!
    而如今台商回流台灣,至少表示工作機會增加,臺灣的工人有機會可以賺錢.
    即使回流台灣的廠商只有40家,工作機會也會增加成千上萬!!!

    ------------------------------
    再來,托中美貿易戰的福,台灣軍事防護獲得有效提升、WHA更多國家支持台灣加入,

    台灣的民主  自由  人權 都是亞洲數一數二,
    說真的,以整個台灣來看,利遠遠大於弊.
    ------------------------------
    看看中美貿易戰前,台灣是不是只能被中共打假的????

  18. 帶你玩日本 目標1000訂閱Miso and Friends

    贸易战最大的利好是对越南。但其他大部分国家都要为此买单。

    很多人觉得企业回流台湾是好事情,表面上是的,有更多的工作机会。
    但生产出来的产品是不是台湾本土能全部消化?
    https://www.mofa.go.jp/mofaj/area/taiwan/data.html
    台湾経済部国際貿易局2018年资料,出口前四名中国,香港,米国,日本,贸易战对美国的影响先放一边,对中国,香港肯定是有影响的,日本也已经宣布景气是后退的,那么没有了这些国家的购买力和市场,台湾生产出的产品要销往何处?

    希望可以理性讨论,喷子请出门左转,peace。

  19. 嘖嘖里

    全球經濟化,就好比一個人,只是之前吃到髒東西,身體生病烙塞中,貿易戰只是把不好的髒東西去掉,保持身體建康和持續成長。當然了,人一但生病只能休養,暫時的損失不可避免,只是為了未來有更好的健康身體,為什麼不能忍受呢?還是覺得硬撐著身體不好,也要一直做事,只因為利益大於健康?希望對你有幫助。😁

  20. Luku Gacu

    其實說貿易戰不會對台灣造成影響那是騙人的,但是會造成正面還是負面的影響,的確有探討的空間。首先,沒錯,下一波3250億美元商品的25%的關稅對於台灣在中國的幾間大型電子產品製造公司(台灣電子5哥)將會是巨大的影響,畢竟在中國的10大對美出口公司,台灣這幾間企業就佔了8間(可見中國人說台灣沒中國養活不下去,怎麼我看剛好相反啊…)。然而,影片中提到的另一個問題是,台灣每年從對中國的貿易順差中賺走了幾百億美元,如果中國經濟下滑,進口量減少,將影響台灣的經濟,這點從數據看確實如此,但若深入去看,這樣的貿易順差,實際上大部分是台灣那些在中國的子公司向台灣母公司進口大量的核心零組件,有點右手賣給左手的意思,所以實際上這樣的順差,並非中國本地有大量台灣產品的需求,這也是為何台灣常年對中貿易順差,但台灣大部分產業的經濟卻並未因此而變更好的原因,因為實際上賺錢的都僅限於這幾間大型電子製造商(電子5哥),所以,用另一個角度想,如果因為貿易戰而迫使這些台企離開中國,而到了越南、印度等國家,那麼他們一樣會開始從這些國家的子公司向台灣母公司進口大量的核心組件,而使台灣開始對越南、印度貿易順差罷了。而另一方面,中國某些產業,接受中國政府的的大量補貼與技術偷竊,而使得其能夠用非常的低廉的價格削價競爭,如太陽能板、安全監控等,在這樣的競爭下,台灣的廠商只能被壓著打,然而美中貿易戰開大後,由於美國對這些公司的制裁,如前幾天美國商務部將中國最大的安全監控公司「海康威視」列為黑名單,結果海康股價應聲跌停,反觀台灣的安全監控公司「奇偶」當日股價漲停,這便是因為轉單的效應所造成的,以這方面來說,台灣反而是貿易戰獲利的一方。從而綜上所述,就我的想法,貿易戰長遠來說,對台灣是有例的,因為台灣受害的部分就只是因為這些公司還在中國生產製造,但未來只要他們願意陸續轉移生產基地到其他國家,那麼他們一樣可以繼續賺錢,但是同時來說,台灣許多本來因為與中國競爭的產業有望可以起死回生。

  21. 實況主唱起來

    貿易戰對台灣的未來是好的。短期間台商因為貿易戰受到的損失是不可避免的,但是因為工廠外逃,反而增加台灣的就業機會,台灣有錢人非常多,他們買昂貴的跑車絕不手軟,但是因為工廠在中國的關係,所以過去20年來的工作機會大都幫助了中國,反觀台灣的GDP不差,但是對一般民眾沒有感覺,因為財富只集中在公司老闆及他在中國雇用的勞工,其實美國也差不多是這樣的情況,所以川普才會希望美國製造業回流美國本土,可以創造當地中低階層勞工的就業機會,所以我會說「中美貿易戰」是改變台灣未來的一個重要機會,短期內出口減少的損失對台灣中低階層真的沒啥差,但長期對中低階層是大利多。

  22. Roberto S

    The term is a misnomer. It was designed by the globalist media to promote the interests of their owners who do business the World over. It's not and has never been the intention nor tradition of the US to weaponize trade. But with ever increasing number of US based companies losing technological know-how to China due to theft, threat and outright legalized robbery, Trump had to act. It's China who refuses to abide by the agreements it signed. They believe that their trickery is working so why change it. The world averaged %4 growth before admitting China into the WTO. Since then, only China had grown. It makes you wonder whether China was really better governed or the Chinese people more diligent  than the rest of the world. But we all know the real reason. It's about time we put the global economy back on track and Trump is doing just that. Everyone will eventually benefit from a world without the Cheater Fraudster Mobster known as China, including Taiwan and the UK, because you will not have to slash price on a product that costs you time and treasure to develop only to see someone in China come out with an identical design who had never done any such work.

  23. Ching-Yi Lin

    Economics 101 is that trade wars are bad for both economies. Trump is doing this for political not economic reasons. Trump in a sense, is China's antithesis of Nixon–instead of opening the door to China, he is closing it. As for Taiwan, it's a net positive for Taiwan, not a negative, because a mightier China would be rabble-rousing about reunification. With respect to Taiwan, it's a negative for Taiwan but Taiwan will survive just fine. If you recall the Asian contagion in the late 1990s, it did not hit Taiwan because of the economic structure of Taiwan, e.g. Taiwan's low Gini index, low household and government debt level, strong purchasing power, etc. My economics professor from London Business School covered the Taiwan economy in the 1980s in his textbook–a decade of record growth unsurpassed by no other country in the world.

  24. Lee Mingchi lee

    Taiwan is bullied by China, everything and forever. Sadly, we are too small to fight back that monster. That's not the trade war. US just teaches China how to simply be honest.

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